Ed Bentley
As Russia ramps up its oil output to become the world's top producer, it is coming under fire from OPEC over its lack of support for the organisation's efforts to protect crude prices.
Russian exports rose to 7.4 million barrels a day in the period from April to June, according to the Energy Ministry, just ahead of exports from Saudi Arabia. Russia produced almost 10 million barrels of oil a day in August, and the extra imports have garnered a tax windfall of $20 billion, according to UralSib estimates.
OPEC made record cuts in January and since then oil has leapt from $30 to around $70 a barrel. At the time, Russia signalled that it would cut output in coordination with OPEC, but instead has increased production in eastern Siberia as the Vankor field has come on line.
Russia's energy minister, Sergei Shmatko, on Saturday insisted that there was "no crisis with OPEC", telling a meeting with the Valdai Club in Moscow that Russia's relations with the cartel were based on cooperation and were "not a zero-sum game".
Unicredit Securities analyst Artem Konchin said that OPEC's compliance, rather than the cuts themselves, have added at least $30 to the price. This translates into an extra $120 million a day pouring into Russia, given that it produced 4 million barrels in that period.
Although demand has been hit by the crisis as worldwide output collapsed, other factors have played into oil producers' hands by helping tighten supply and force the price up.
"The oil supply is limited not only because of OPEC's policy, but also due to the depletion of the biggest oil fields in key oil producing regions," said Natalia Milchakova, oil and gas analyst at financial company Otkritie. "The lack of new discoveries of oil fields ... is a crucial factor in the equation."
OPEC has agreed to maintain its quotas again this month, but Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed al-Adullah al-Sabah warned last week they "need more compliance" with existing targets.
Qatar's oil chief has also criticised non-OPEC members, saying he was "fed up" with them failing to cut production.
"We heard a lot of oral support, we would like to see physical support," Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said at OPEC's Vienna headquarters on 9th September.
Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who was in Venezuela hammering out a strategic projects agreement, said Russia "will bear this criticism."
The Russian government raked in an extra 7 per cent in extraction tax revenues in the second quarter compared to the first three months of the year, according to Milchakova. However, year-on-year production has only crept up 0.4 per cent, while other non-member producers' output has fallen.
"It is not such a large amount that could compensate for an organic decrease in countries like Mexico," said Svetlana Grizan, an oil analyst at VTB.
"While members of OPEC were under obligations, other producers were able to step up and capture new markets," said Konchin. "Russia alone is not enough to move the market."
The fear now is that the oil price could sink, despite China announcing plans to enlarge its stockpiles. Although Russia is under no obligation to OPEC, a dip in the price could see it work more closely with the cartel.
"Russia's behaviour has indicated it wants to be on the same side as OPEC, rather than opposing it," said Konchin. "We should expect cooperation rather than a conflict."